We can see from the numbers:
There is a pretty consistent view on which vendors are major players in the market despite the difference in sizing.
There is a consistent view that the market is large and growing rapidly.
The top players are enterprise focused in the most part—exception being VMWare early success and the portion Meraki plays in Cisco. This likely suggests carrier managed services for national SMB have not yet hit full stride.
The underlying questions that remain to answer:
Revenue sizing is difficult and will get more so. SD WAN is not as consistently defined and measured and will never be as easy to count as MPLS circuits, Managed routers or even hosted UCaaS. So, is there a more insightful set of data we should be looking at? One obvious metric that used to be discussed frequently and is now less visible is number of sites deployed.
There is still a big question of how managed services from carriers are being counted. a. Versa and Nuage both have been selected by multiple (10+) carriers. While Nuage is now showing up on the rankings, Versa still is not.
b. IHS numbers would suggest that Aryaka (self-built platform) deploys more than the 20+ carrier customers of Nokia and Versa combined. Can this be true?
Security is intersecting the SD WAN market, just as WAN OPS did in the early days. The rapid rise of Fortinet is the start of a much broader question about how much security players will reshape the landscape of networking vendors.
Over the new few months, we’ll be considering these questions further, and attempting to shed some light on them. Of course, we welcome your thoughts on market sizing and what different sets of data would be useful for your understanding of the market. If that’s a conversation you’d like to have with us, please do get in touch.